From Rolex To Seiko: We Predict What's To Come In The Watch World In 2025

I’ve made it something of a tradition of my own to look out upon the valley of a fresh year and attempt to predict what we might see when it arrives. Like any predictive work, I end being entirely off base by the time that new year ends. So think of this exercise as one of bold predictions, and also one of things I hope to see happen in the watch industry in 2025.

Some of this is based on trends I have observed after years in this industry, some of it is a feeling based on the way the market winds are blowing, and some of it is just a vibe, man. So I will spare you any more hyperbolic introduction and get right into the swing of things. Behold my predictions for the year in watches, 2025.

Rolex will continue a sparse rollout of blue chip steel watches, or it’s getting ready to shock us all.

When I did this in 2023, I predicted that Rolex would continue its use of titanium across the collection. That was on the heels of a late 2022 release via the behemoth Deepsea Challenge. That year I was kind of right as the Yacht-Master arrived in RLX Titanium, but that was it. And there was no follow-up in 2024. Instead, 2024 gave us one lone steel watch, a GMT-Master II that I dubbed the brand’s best (and only) sports of this year.

For me it also signaled something of a message from the Crown: There is only so much excitement that one company can produce through its product launches. And over the years we have seen the Explorer return to 36mm, the GMT-Master line get nearly every desirable colorway in every possible bracelet configuration, the Submariner revamped, the Daytona updated, the Explorer II updated, the OP updated, and Air King updated. We also saw the Milgauss discontinued (pour one out), and the Datejust toyed with from time to time but not in any meaningful way.

So what do I see in 2025? More of the same as 2024. That means a lot of two-tone, precious metal, 1904 iteration, and only a dusting of steel. There are three options I see happening. One is a revival of the Milgauss, but I see this is doubtful. The most Rolex thing Rolex could do would be to revamp the Datejust with a new movement and a set of new dials. But that would really take the wind out of Watches & Wonders. What does everyone think Rolex will do? Well, they think Rolex is poised to release a Coke GMT. But they’ve also been thinking that for years.

Rendering of a potential 2025 Rolex "Coke" GMT-Master II

Ready for my pie-in-the-sky crystal ball prediction? I actually think the black GMT-Master II last year was a harbinger, and a Swan song. You see, you must remember that when Rolex revamped its professional range, it began with the GMT. So I think it is possible that the brand uses this year to completely revamp the line – whatever that means. In a perfect world, it could mean a couple of things: the retirement of the brushed and polished Oystersteel bracelet in favor of one that is all brushed (man, that would be a dream), the use of a matte Cerachrom bezel, a reconfigured case, and all of this debuting in the Coke format. If you know Rolex though, you just know that the debut watch will be in white Gold and that we’ll have to wait yet for the steel models to catch up. Do I really think this will happen? I have no clue, but I love a good controversial guess.

Tudor will cement itself as a top producer of GMT watches in its price segment

This something of a lame prediction because it has basically already happened. Since 2018, when the Black Bay GMT came out, Tudor has been perched at the tippy top of this class. Then it released the Black Bay Pro, then this year’s Black Bay 58 GMT, and then the most recent Pelagos FXD GMT (using the same movement as the BB Pro). 

In 2025, I suspect Tudor will give the people what they want with the Black Bay 58 GMT in a Pepsi configuration. I think this will go down as a scene-stealing release for the entire Watches & Wonders show and become one of the top desired watches of next year. First of all, it’s such low-hanging fruit and we just know it’s coming eventually.

But part of this is also tied to my prediction above, as Tudor and Rolex have a history of aligning its releases. If the Rolex GMT of this past year was a harbinger, so too could the new BB58 GMT have been one. It was it’s own version of Coke, just with burgundy instead a traditional red (and with gilt accents). So as Rolex brings its Coke format back into the fray, I think Tudor brings Pepsi to its favorite model range in the Black Bay Collection.

We will see the next iteration of a MoonSwatch style Swatch collaboration

It’s been over a year since Swatch has released a new collaboration. So far we’ve seen the industry-disrupting MoonSwatch, the second-act Blancpain x Swatch Scuba Fifty each of which saw iterations in 2024. The winds of newness are a blowin' though, and it just feels like the time is nearing for something new.

And this is not entirely a prediction generally, but more so for 2025 as I have it on fairly good authority that Swatch is nowhere near done with this direction when it comes to collaborating with brands to make Swatchified versions of select watches.

So in my mind the question is less if, but rather when. So I am putting my chips on the when being in 2025. Could it be the Breguet Type XX that enthusiasts of been clamoring for? Impossible to say (though I personally doubt it and I know one my colleagues won’t be pleased to read this take from me).

I tend to think that the Scuba Fifty release might have Swatch return to the Omega well. But as I type that, I also find that to be unlikely. Why take away from the continued runaway success of the cultural phenomenon of MoonSwatch?

This all leads me to say that I will not be guessing which brand it is. I prefer to be surprised, and Swatch has proven to be mighty good at surprising us all.

AP and Patek will focus on everything but steel sports watches

As Rolex prices steadily increase above $10k and inching toward $15k for its steel watches, something tells me that AP and Patek will continue inching away from this category. I mean, we have basically seen this play out over the years.

Patek famously discontinued its iconic 5711 and does not appear to have any plans to replace it with a new steel nautilus. Instead, it released the Cubitus in 2024 which, divisiveness aside, signaled to me a further communication to the broader public that steel was not going to be its main priority. These days, the Aquanaut is all but unobtanium, and on the AP side…good luck getting your hands on a 16202 Royal Oak.

AP seems to have figured out that all you need to do is have just enough steel watches in the hopper and then use them to funnel the consumer towards the precious metal offerings. Patek is in the same game now. And honestly, for both of these brands, that may very well be a good thing. These brands do amazing work with precious metal watches. I personally love me a white gold Royal Oak – and the most interesting stuff from Patek are its complications all of which are in precious metals.

So this is not a hot take but more of a measured one (if I can say so myself). Now watch Patek release a steel Nautilus in January.  

Omega will take a breather – at least in Q1, and then it will finally address the classic SMP300m bracelet

I don’t think I have ever seen a brand go on a release heater the way Omega did from Summer 2024 to the end of the year, lest we forget the launch of the white Speedmaster that came just ahead of the summer. It was a wild year: White speedy, black lacquer Aqua Terra, all manner of Olympic editions, the new First Omega in Space, the new steel (and steel/titanium) SMP300m models, the two-tone green SMP300m in titanium, the turquoise Aqua Terra, the solid gold SMPs, and the Speedmaster Pilot. I am out of breath just typing that.

So my prediction is that Omega deserves to to rest on it laurels..at the very least to kick off the year. After that is anyone’s guess. All of this iteration in the Semaster Diver 300m line though has me thinking back to a prediction I made in 2023: It’s time to update the OG bracelet for this watch. Yes, the milanese bracelets are cool, but that ‘90s style number is neo-vintage iconic.

My hope for 2025 is that Omega takes this bracelet and molds into something fresh like it did with the Moonwatch. Give me the same basic structure, with a more refined clasp, and a taper. That’s all I ask for.

Seiko will find a way to make more attainable GMTs

The Seiko SKX collection of SSK GMT models are a bona-fide smash hit and much the way Tudor has cornered its segment of the GMT marker, so to has Seiko. I mean, the SSK001 remains an absolute modern essential watch for anyone looking for a (very) sub $1,000 GMT option. We have since seen Seiko move the GMT functionality into a more field-oriented format, and then into the Presage line.

There really isn’t too much more the brand can do to continue its iteration in this space but I see a couple ways where it can start in 2025. The first would be an attempt at making a smaller case-size version, though that feels like a massive long shot.

The other would be to introduce an Oyster-style bracelet option for the SKX-style SSK GMT line. This is similar to the way Rolex offers its GMTs on either a Jubilee or an Oyster bracelet. We love options, and this option would make this watch more popular than it already is which seems impossible. Make it possible. 

It will be the year of the white dial

I like to anoint a dial color for the year ahead, and even though green continues to persist, and blue is an iconoclast, I think white dials are poised for a big year in 2025. Tudor gave us the opaline Black Bay GMT, Hamiltong gave us a white dial Murph. Let’s get crazy the new year! Let’s see an albino Rolex GMT-Master, a white dial 36mm Explorer, a white Chopard Alpine Eagle (this one goes out to our EiC Bilal Khan but I also would love to see this), and really anything Grand Seiko wants to do with a white dial because you know it’ll be killer.

This is the briefest section because it is the most self-explanatory. So ends my prediction for 2025. Please let me know what you think and please disagree with me. I love a good discourse.